Money
Money is entered in a cash register. Reuters/Carlo Allegri

Bell FX Currency Outlook: Today’s RBA Minutes will help ascertain whether the change in wording at its most recent policy assessment signals a stronger easing bias.

Australia: Specifically, the RBA noted that “continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand” rather than the previously used “may provide scope”. The AUD/USD is now back above 0.7500 and it is becoming a bit of a discomfort to the Bank, (Deputy Governor Lowe implied as much last week), however 2 weeks ago, when the RBA last met, the AUD/USD was trading around 0.7100 which was probably not that uncomfortable. Focus will be on the FOMC two day meeting which concludes on Wednesday (5am AEDT Thursday). ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence is due at 9:30am AEDT and the March RBA Minutes at 11:30am AEDT.

Majors: Market moves were generally modest ahead of key central bank meetings this week. Iran’s intention to increase production contributed to modest falls in oil prices. The USD broadly firmed overnight as markets looked forward to the FOMC. The EUR/USD eased with markets taking a more favourable view of ECB action. The BoJ concludes its two day meeting today and our expectation is for the Bank to sit tight. While recent economic data releases have been weaker than expected Japan labour market has remained resilient. The annual session of the National People’s Congress will conclude, with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang expected to hold a press conference.

Economic Calendar 15 MAR

  • AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Feb
  • JN BoJ Policy Meeting Mar
  • EC Employment Q4
  • US Empire State Manu acting Index Mar

Bell Fx

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