U.S. currency five-dollar bills
Sheets of former U.S. President Abraham Lincoln on the five-dollar bill currency are seen through a magnifying glass at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington March 26, 2015. Reuters/Gary Cameron

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD continues to press higher as the USD remains broadly on the back foot. Global markets are quiet, leaving currencies to focus on local data.

Australia: With the rejection by the Senate of the Government’s bill on the construction watchdog yesterday, Australia looks to be heading for a double dissolution election on 2 July. The Commonwealth Budget will be delivered on 3 May and then the financial appropriations bills will have to be passed. RBA Minutes lead event risk in Asia, though no surprises are expected at 11.30am AEST. Governor Stevens is speaking in NY this evening at a global macro conference on ‘Observations on the Current Situation’.

Majors: NZ Q1 CPI increased 0.2% in Q1 and 0.4% y/y, close to expectations. Readings of core inflation were also firmer. There was little in the way of major data or events overnight, but markets reversed much of the post Doha price action in energy and currencies. Oil prices retraced, with prices for WTI back to USD40/bbl after earlier falling under USD38/bbl. A turn around that looks to have come from a labour strike in Kuwait that has sidelined 1.7mbpd reducing global over-supply. Sentiment was also supported by positive comments on the US and European outlook by the Fed’s Dudley and improved US corporate earnings. European and US stocks saw modest gains, while the retracement in oil prices later in the session helped to pull bond yields up.

Economic Calendar 19 APR

  • AU RBA Minutes Apr
  • EC ZEW Survey Expectations Apr
  • US Housing Starts/Building Permits Mar
  • AU RBA Stevens Speech in New York

Bell Fx

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