Australian one dollar coins
A handful of Australian one dollar coins is shown in Sydney, February 18, 2004. Reuters/Tim Wimborne

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar opens today in the mid 0.7500’s after trading in a fairly narrow range on Friday.

Australia: We expect a quiet start to trading this week as we see the latest home lending and investor lending data today locally and March’s CPI and PPI figures from China later this morning. Later in the week the focus will be on Thursday’s latest local labour force figures while the GDP data from China for Q1 will be released on Friday along with the latest industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment figures. The direction of the AUD is likely to be driven by offshore factors unless our labour figures surprise on the downside on Thursday morning and the possibility of a rate cut here increases which would most likely push the AUD to a lower level.

Majors: On Friday, the wholesale inventory figures from the US for February fell 0.5% which was lower than the fall of 0.2% expected. Germany’s trade balance for February came in better than expected at a surplus of EUR20.3bn which was higher than the EUR18.0bn expected and January’s figure of EUR13.4bn. Their current account balance also advanced to EUR20.0bn which was higher than the EUR16.5bn expected. Both exports and imports were higher than expected. In the UK, industrial and manufacturing production were both weaker than expected in February and the trade balance deteriorated as well. Over the weekend US Federal Reserve member Dudley said he favours gradual and cautious rate increases this year. The US beige book figures will be released on Thursday along with the CPI figures. A day earlier we will see retail sales numbers. The commodity market will be keenly watching the outcome of the OPEC meeting on April 17 where many members are pushing for a cut in production levels.

Economic Calendar 11 APR

  • AU Home Loans Feb
  • NZ Retail Spending Credit Mar
  • CH CPI / PPI Mar
  • CH New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing, Money Supply Mar

Bell Fx

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