Analyst Says Putin Could Offer Ukraine A Cease-Fire If This Happens

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Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses participants of the IX Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus, via video link in Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses participants of the IX Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus, via video link in Moscow, Russia July 1, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin via REUTERS

Russian President Vladimir Putin could propose a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine once he successfully takes over all of the Donbas region, a defense policy analyst has said.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Capital Connection” earlier this week, Victor Abramowqicz, principal of Australia-based firm Ostoya Consulting, said that Putin would likely temporarily stop the war to fortify the southeastern Donbas region if Russian forces manage to claim it. 

“Putin [may] offer the potential for a cease-fire if only to give him[self] an opportunity to fortify the gains that he’s managed to achieve so far,” Abramowqicz said. 

Putin on Monday congratulated his military forces for “liberating” the Luhansk province after Russian soldiers overran the city of Lysychansk, which served as the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in the province. The war has caused severe damage to a huge portion of infrastructures in Luhansk, including residential buildings. Numerous deaths among both the Russian and Ukrainian military forces, as well as Ukrainian civilians, have also been reported.

Russian forces are now focused on capturing the neighboring Donetsk province, which together with Luhansk makes up the Donbas region. The cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk are seeing heavy artillery fire, with the Russians striking a market and a residential area Tuesday. At least two people died in the attack.

“There is no safe place without shelling in the Donetsk region,” Donetsk regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said.

In his official Telegram channel, Kyrylenko also called for the province’s more than 350,000 remaining residents to evacuate, saying that fleeing the province would allow the Ukrainian army to save lives and put up a better defense against the Russian forces. 

Putin first announced the start of the invasion on Feb. 24, calling it a “special military operation” to “demilitarize and de-Nazify” Ukraine. As of Wednesday, at least 4,889 civilians have been killed by Russian forces, including 4,554 adults and 198 children. At least 6,263 Ukrainian civilians have been injured in the war, including 3,408 residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, according to estimates from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). 


President Putin has ordered his troops to carry on the assault in the Donbas
President Putin has ordered his troops to carry on the assault in the Donbas
Photo: AFP / Genya SAVILOV

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