Researchers fear potentially dangerous 'grey swan' hurricane; Tampa, Cairns, Dubai at risk

Given the increasing concern about global climate change, a number of scientists around the world are studying scientific data to quantify the risk associated with potentially devastating hurricanes. Recently, a team of researchers has predicted the occurrence of “grey swans”, which are potentially devastating storms that are least likely to occur but can actually be predicted.

According to the researchers at Princeton and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, grey swans have a massive impact, much greater than anything experienced in history. The team predicts that coastal cities, states and countries across the world, including Australia, Dubai and Florida, are at a risk of being devastated by such a storm.

The scientists say that by the end of this century, the effect of climate change would be huge enough to trigger the occurrence of grey swan. Although the chances of its occurrence are extremely rare, the researchers suggest that city planners and officials should now address the impact of storm surges while planning the infrastructure in a coastal city.

"We are considering extreme cases," said Ning Lin, assistant professor at Princeton, in a statement.

"These are relevant for policy making and planning, especially for critical infrastructure and nuclear power plants."

During the study, Lin partnered with Kerry Emanuel of MIT to create computer models that examine the impact of a powerful storm on three coastal cities, namely, Cairns, Australia; Tampa, Florida in the United States; and Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The study results showed that powerful storms can create potentially devastating storm surges in all the three cities, leading to huge loss of lives and infrastructure.

Using the mathematical models based on the climate data for the years 1980 through 2010, the researchers simulated 3,100 tropical cyclone storm surges. The study found that Dubai is at a risk of having a storm surge that can reach up to a height of 13 metres once in every 10,000 years. As compared to the 2.87 metres height of the storm surge caused by Hurricane Sandy that hit New York, the data for the predicted storm surge in Dubai seem alarming and devastating at the same time.

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