Australian Dollar:
As expected the final Asian session of last week was relatively quiet and we spent most the day trading either side of 1.04. The quiet Asian session was in total contrast the US session however, which saw volatility return in a big way with US jobs data coming in much better than expected. The data was one of the highlights on the calendar for the week as the Fed has continuously pointed to employment numbers as their indication for further stimulus. In recent times strong US data has generally been USD weak as it generally spurs risk appetite and this was the markets initial reaction on Friday night. However things quickly turned after the initial spike and we saw the AUD lose significant ground back towards 1.0330 against its US counterpart as traders saw the improving numbers as a sign that easing measures currently in place could end sooner that initially expected. This week is shaping up to be a very busy one, with local retail sales and trade balance today followed by RBA tomorrow and our own employment figures and a bit of Chinese data to round off the week. We open this morning at 1.0330.

We expect a range today of 1.0300 – 1.0390

New Zealand Dollar:
The Kiwi held up relatively well on Friday despite a big gain in the USD against all of its major counterparts. The USD received a significant boost from US jobs data released on Friday night which had many cutting back their expectations for the length of time the Fed will need to continue their current easing policies. This initially pulled us back below 0.8250 but the NZD managed to find support just below here and still finished the week as one of the strongest performing of the major currencies. It was a fairly quiet local session on Friday with minimal data or headline grabbing events; we did however see big moves in the NZD/JPY which reached a 6 month high nudging past 66.70 following further easing from the Japanese central bank. This morning we open at 0.8236 against the USD with the highlights of the week being local unemployment on Thursday and also Chinese inflation data on Friday.

We expect a range today of 0.8220 – 0.8285

Great British Pound:
The pound continues to underperform having failed to hold onto the 1.6100 level on Friday night and looked like it may test 1.6000. It has so far passed that test but still looks quite vulnerable, this all despite recent relatively strong economic data of late which continued on Friday with the Construction Purchasing Managers index rising to 50.9 from 49.5. This again adds support to the story that the UK economy may be turning a corner and this may lead the BOE to hold off on adding any further stimulus. The Bank of England meets Thursday which will be the highlight locally for the week; however movements in the pound will also be heavily influenced by the large amount of offshore events including the US election, ECB rate decision and German CPI to name a few. On the currency front we find the cable at 1.6005, the GBP/AUD at 1.5485 and the GBP/NZD at 1.9430.

We expect a range today of 1.5430 – 1.5530

Majors:
In a week mostly dominated by non-traditional data events, last week finished off with focus squarely on US Labor Department’s Non-Farm payrolls report. The big headlines and market movers early last week were the hurricane and elections in the US which held most currencies in a fairly tight range; it was only in the last sessions of the week that we saw some volatility. In terms of the figures the Friday report showed 171k jobs added to the US jobs market in October which was much better than the 120k expected, we did however see the unemployment rate increase to 7.9% as more people entered the hunt for a job. This has seen the USD gain against most of its counterparts and it has particularly built on its strength against the Yen reaching a high of 80.65 having earlier gained on the back of BOJ increasing its monetary stimulus program. In Europe the focus continues to remain on Greece with pressure mounting on the Greeks to increase spending cuts before any more bailouts will be released. This combined with the strengthening dollar has seen EUR/USD at month low levels of 1.2820. Looking ahead the week will be dominated by the US election and three central bank rate decisions.

Data releases:

AUD:
Trade Balance, Retail Sales, AIG Services Index, TD Securities Inflation

NZD:
No data today

JPY:
No data today

GBP:
PMI Services

EUR:
Sentix Investor Confidence

USD:
ISM Non-manufacturing Composite