Australian dollar coin
A one Australian dollar coin is seen in this picture illustration taken in Sydney, Australia, July 29, 2015. Reuters/David Gray

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has continued to move higher and begins the week’s trading over
the 0.7300 level.

Australia: North America was on holiday yesterday (exception being US stock markets open) and consequently, it has been a quiet night. Currencies remain more lively than stocks and bond markets, though yields have pushed lower. The NZD and AUD are performing strongly in the G10 stakes. The NZD has risen above USD 0.6700 again while the AUD has made new highs on this run-up from 0.6937 since 29 September which leaves it currently sitting on its 100 day moving average. It would not surprise to see USD 0.7400 depending on the latest China trade data and bearing in mind that the RMB is continuing to strengthen. USD/CNY is down 0.34% since Friday. Today will be bus. We have China trade data, the NAB business survey and RBA deputy governor Phil Lowe speaking.

Majors: The Federal Reserve speeches have been quite prolific. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart downplayed the impact of China’s slowdown on the US though did admit a link via the negative impact of China on Europe. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has mid-2016 as his preferred lift-off date. Oil had a bad night with Nymex and Brent crude both off over $2 on news that OPEC production just hit a new 3-year high. The US NFIB Small Business Optimism survey and the German
ZEW survey are released. The latter should give us the first read on the impact on business sentiment from the VW diesel emissions scandal. Falls in both the Current Situation and Expectations readings are expected. ECB President Draghi spoke on inflation in the Eurozone over the weekend and stated oil prices are largely to blame for the likelihood of it taking longer for inflation to come up to the ‘near 2% target’. James Bullard is tonight’s featured Fed speaker.

Economic Calendar 13 OCT

  • AU NAB Business Confidence/Conditions Sep
  • CH Trade Balance Sep
  • EC ZEW Survey Sep
  • US Nfib Small Business Optimism Sep

Bell FX

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