Australian Dollar Outlook - Nov. 3, 2015
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The focus today will be on the RBA cash rate decision at 2:30pm AEDT, along with the running of the Melbourne Cup shortly after.
Australia: It will be all eyes on the RBA for AUD markets today in what is likely to be a finely balanced decision. It is widely expected that the RBA with remain on hold even with the out-of-cycle moves to increase mortgage rates. The RBA’s comments will be closely scrutinised, particularly in regards to the soft Q3 inflation data and recent developments in the housing market. While economic growth is sub-trend, there are positive signs, especially in the business surveys. The GDT auction will be the focus for the NZD, while a speech by ECB President Draghi will set the tone for the euro. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly
Consumer Confidence will be released at 9:30am AEDT.
Majors: It was a lacklustre session on FX markets, with G10 currencies trading in tight ranges. The sterling received an initial boost after the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 55.5 (vs 51.8 expected) in October from 51.8, the highest level since June 2014, but these gains were later erased. The final October euro area manufacturing PMI was upgraded modestly to 52.3, from an initial estimate of 52.0. Much of the improvement was driven by Germany. The French PMI, however, was revised marginally lower, while the Spanish PMI also declined. China’s Caixin reading kicked off the round of global PMIs at 48.3 vs 47.6 expected. While continues to signal contraction, the details of the report are improving, with output and new orders on the up.
Economic Calendar 03 NOV
- AU RBA Interest Rate Decision Nov
- US ISM New York Oct
- US Factory Orders Sep
- NZ Dairy Auction
BellFx
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