Australian one dollar coins
A handful of Australian one dollar coins is shown in Sydney, February 18, 2004. Reuters/Tim Wimborne

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar had a briefflurry into the mid .7300’s on Friday night as the latestemployment cost figures from the US were the weakest in thelast 30 years.

Australia: The AUD recovered from its weak tone on Friday afternoonand early evening Australian time when the latest figures for employmentcosts for Q2 were released in the US. The markets expected the indexwould advance by 0.6% for the last quarter but when it only moved up by0.2% more doubts emerged about when the US Federal Reserve mightbegin to raise interest rates. This drove the AUD higher as stop losseswere triggered and the AUD traded above .7350. This week is filled withmany announcements locally beginning today with the latest data forinflation, house prices and job ads. Tomorrow we will hear from the RBAwho are not expected to change the current cash rate of 2% but also wewill see the latest trade and retail sales figures. Employment figures areout on Thursday followed at the end of the week by the RBA’s QuarterlyStatement on Monetary Policy. Today we also see the latest Caixinfigures from China for manufacturing PMI data for July which we expectwill be in line with the official PMI figures that came out on the weekendthat revealed a 5 month low of 50.0. The official non-manufacturing PMIfigures were slightly better than June at 53.9. Today banks will be closedin NSW and the ACT while the NT has a public holiday.

Majors: Other data from the US on Friday saw the Chicago purchasingmanagers index rise to 54.7 in July which was higher than the 50.8 figureexpected while the ISM figures for the Milwaukee area were weaker thanexpected (50.0) at 47.1. The final read of consumer sentiment from theUniversity of Michigan was a touch weaker at 93.1 versus the 94.0 figureanticipated. The unemployment level in Europe held steady at 11.1%while the latest inflation figures were in line with expectations rising only0.2% on a yoy basis for July. In Germany, retail sales rose more thanexpected for the last year (5.1%) although the mom figure was softer thanexpected declining by 2.3%. All eyes will be on the latest non-farm payrolldata from the US which will be released on Friday night for further clueson the timing of interest rate rises in the US.

Economic Calendar 03 AUG

  • AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index Jul
  • AU ANZ Job Advertisements Jul
  • AU NAB Online Retail Sales Index Jun
  • US ISM Manufacturing Jul

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