U.S. currency five-dollar bills
Sheets of former U.S. President Abraham Lincoln on the five-dollar bill currency are seen through a magnifying glass at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington March 26, 2015. Reuters/Gary Cameron

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has consolidated after some big gains, aided by the stronger oil prices.

Australia: After yesterday reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to freeze oil production, pushing crude prices higher, oil prices fell overnight as scepticism of a ”Freeze” agreement rose following comments from Saudi oil minister ruling out a production cut while U.S. industry data showed crude stockpiles expanded last week. Still, other commodities had a good night, boosted by the better than expected trade data from China. The Aussie Dollar has opened lower this morning after yesterday pushing higher, reaching March highs. Weak US retail sales, weaker-thanexpected producer price inflation, declining inventories, and the Fed Beige book were unable to drive a significant market move. Today’s statistically noisy local employment data may drive some added volatility to the AUD. US CPI inflation tonight is expected to tick higher. Key today will be Australian employment data at 11.30am AEST.

Majors: Euro was the big mover finally breaking away from 1.1400, trading down to 1.1270. US headline retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.3% m/m and auto sales fell 2.1% m/m. The weakness comes despite employment strength and resilient consumer confidence. Upstream prices were also softer than expected in March, with the headline PPI falling 0.1% m/m. The Bank of Canada presented a modestly dovish tone relative to market expectations following its decision to leave rates on hold at 0.50%. The BoC revised up its domestic GDP growth forecast for 2016 by 0.3ppts to 1.7% on the back of an estimated 0.5ppt boost from fiscal stimulus.

Economic Calendar 14 APR

  • AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Apr
  • AU Unemployment/Employment Change Mar
  • UK BoE Interest Rate Decision Apr
  • US CPI Mar

Bell Fx

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