Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar's strong run of late has moderated after a decline in commodity prices on Friday and some modestly disappointing figures from the US.

Australia The AUD has come back to the 1.0500 level this morning after commodity prices reduced on Friday with gold hitting a 20 month low and trading below the US$1500 an ounce figure.

Brent crude oil also hit a nine month low around at US$101 a barrel after equity indices in Europe were all lower although the major US indices only finished a few points below their previous closing levels.

Although the US indices registered their best result for the week since the first week of the year with the Dow up by 2.1% and the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, all financial markets took a breather after the strong run of late.

Today we will see owner occupied and investment housing finance figures for February in Australia but all eyes will be on Q1 data due to be released from China. GDP, industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales figures will give the market a good read on how the Chinese economy is churning.

If the figures are better than expected we should see the AUD move into the mid 1.0500's but if they disappoint we could see a further retreat to lower levels.

Tomorrow we will see the release of the RBA minutes from earlier this month and the market will be looking for further clues on their interest rate policy.

Majors: Over the weekend, US retail sales disappointed by falling 0.4% in March. A consumer confidence survey from the University of Michigan yielded a result which was the poorest in nine months and below expectations.

The rise of the USD versus the JPY halted for the moment and the AUDJPY has retreated from the 105 level we saw last week. The EUR continues to maintain its strength versus the USD as Cyprus announced they would be selling up to EUR400m of gold to assist with the terms of the bailout from the troika. Overall it is a light week for economic data worldwide.
Economic Calendar
15 APR AU Housing Finance Feb
CH Industrial Production Mar, GDP Q1, Retail Sales Mar
EU Euro zone Trade Balance Feb
US Empire Manufacturing Apr

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