Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker
Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar traded below the .9300 level for the first time in weeks as the USD was stronger against all the major currencies.
Australia: The AUD was weaker as generally better numbers from the US advanced the timing of increases in interest rates in the US. With credit markets more nervous as Argentina missed an interest payment on their external debt and a general reduction in the major share indices in both Europe and the US of around 2%, the AUD steadily traded downward.

Yesterday's local building approvals fell 5% mom for June which was not unexpected since May's figures were 25% higher. Non-residential
approvals rose 17.9% after May's huge 53.3% increase.

Private sector credit grew by 0.7% mom which was better than the expectations of 0.4%. Today we will see some PPI (Producer Price Index) figures but more importantly we will see the official Chinese manufacturing PMI figures for July and the final read of this index from HSBC. The official figure for June was 51 and the market expects a result slightly higher at 51.2.

These figures will be released at 11:00 and 11:45 AEST this morning, respectively. If the figures are significantly different than what is expected
this may move the AUD.

Majors: Further evidence of an improving US economy were revealed overnight as the employment cost index rose 0.7% qoq in Q2 as compared to 0.3% in Q1 and wages and salaries increased 0.8% from the 0.2% level in the previous quarter.

The Chicago PMI number was a shocker falling to 52.6 in July from expectations of 63 and is considered to be a one off aberration. Europe's CPI rose by 0.4% yoy versus the 0.5% expected and unemployment continued to fall slightly from May to June (11.6% to 11.5%).

Tonight we will see the all important US non-farm payroll data which most analysts expect will rise by 230k with no change anticipated in the unemployment rate of 6.1%. Weekly jobless claims rose slightly this week to 302K from last week's figure of 279k. Also tonight we will see the latest ISM manufacturing index figures.

Economic Calendar
01 AUG AU RPData/Rismark House Px MoM
CH Manufacturing PMI
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
US ISM Manufacturing